Soybean farmers will demand higher premiums for non-genetically engineered soybeans next year and likely supply only the crops under contract, according to US Soybean Export Council CEO Dan Duran. During a recent interview in Tokyo, Duran noted that U.S. farmers are planting fewer acres of non-biotech soybeans that are more expensive to produce and lower-yielding than genetically engineered varieties.

Increased premiums would raise costs for food suppliers in Japan, the largest export market for non-biotech soybeans. Other Asian buyers, such as Taiwan and South Korea, also import non-GMO soybeans.

“There is no guarantee that there will be product available on the spot market,” Duran said. He added that “without contracts, no one can guarantee availability.”

China’s soybean crushing industry is not capable of raising output sufficiently to meet increasing demand which will see imports of soyoil leap in the 2007-08 season, according to an industry analyst. Oilseeds analyst Oil World has claimed that China’s October soyoil imports in the 2007 to September 2008 season will rise to 2.8 million tonnes from 2.4 million tonnes last season due to a surge in demand and the inability of the domestic producers to keep up.

“The domestic supply situation remains rather critical for vegetable oils,” it said. “In recent weeks the (Chinese) government has urged the industry and trade to step up imports in order to raise domestic supplies.” It added that there were recent large-scale purchases of palm, soy and rapeseed oils but the desired effect of bringing down prices from the current high levels has not yet been accomplished.

China’s imports of soyoil have risen rapidly in the past two years due to its growing population and booming economy and the 2.4 million tonnes of the commodity imported last season were up 58 percent from the 2005-06 season total of 1.51 million tonnes.

Senate leaders have concluded an agreement that should allow floor action to get underway this week on the stalled 2007 farm bill.The main reason for the impasse up to this point was a disagreement about the number of amendments that would be debated during consideration of the farm bill. Senators have filed more than 250 amendments to the measure, a number that clearly is unmanageable.

Under the agreement worked out between Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), each side of the aisle will be permitted to introduce twenty amendments, not all of which will been to be germane to the farm bill. These could include measures that would alter provisions of the federal estate tax and affect regulations governing commodity markets and their handling of energy-related derivatives. Another issue that has been discussed as a possible farm bill amendment is immigration.

Votes on the amendments will not take place until at earliest December 11, and will likely take several days to complete. Details on the amendments remain unknown because the final list of forty is not yet complete.

The final Senate floor debate on the farm bill, whenever it comes, is expected to be more intense and involved than was the case earlier this year when the House considered the measure.

U.S. farm exports during fiscal 2008 are forecast to surge to a record $91 billion, obliterating the previous record of $81.9 billion set just last year, according to USDA. If realized, the 2008 total would be up $7.5 billion from USDA’s August estimate. “This outlook is largely supported by continued strong demand, tight markets and sharply higher prices for grains and oilseeds, and a weaker dollar,” said USDA.

USDA said soybean exports will total $10.4 billion in Fiscal 2008, due to growing demand from China, an increase of $1.9 billion from 2007. Wheat exports were revised higher to $7.5 billion, up $1.1 billion from 2007. The forecast for corn was increased to $10.2 billion from $8.9 billion.

Census fats and oil report showed that the biodiesel industry’s usage of soyoil dropped further to 107,000 tonnes in October from a revised 127,000 tonnes in September. Biodiesel margins continue to erode as soyoil futures have not retreated to the extent that petroleum futures have in the past couple of weeks. Census also revised October soyoil stocks 7,260 tonnes higher to 1.38 million tonnes.

A Japanese government study found that older women who eat traditional Japanese soy-based foods on a regular basis face lower risks of heart disease. Soybeans have a high amount of isoflavones, a natural source of estrogen similar to the female hormone, the study found. The risk of heart attacks or strokes for a woman who consumed soy at least five times a week was 0.39 compared with 1 for a woman who consumed the least, the study said.

The results were even more striking among women past menopause, with the risk falling to 0.25, said the leader of the study, Yoshihiko Kokubo, chief doctor of preventive cardiology at Japan’s National Cardiovascular Center.

The soy complex closed mostly lower December 6, reflecting an early setback in energy prices that weighed on the market. Futures across the soy complex then turned higher as the petroleum markets recovered, but were unable to sustain that momentum through the day and closed mostly lower. Speculative funds reportedly were net even in soybean trades and were light sellers of soybean meal and soybean oil January bean futures closed down $0.28, finishing at $403.27; March gained $0.09, closing at $410.70; and May was down $0.73, ending at $413.64. December meal decreased $1.10 closing at $330.25; January was $1.21 lower, finishing at $333.23; and March meal closed down $0.77 ending at $338.96. December oil closed unchanged to finish at $997.58; January was down $1.32, closing at $1006.18; and March was $1.54 lower, closing at $1018.97.

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