The Census crush report pegged the December soybean crush about 54,400 to 81,600 tonnes bushels below expectations at 4.42 million tonnes and revised lower the November crush by 27,200 tonnes to 4.24 million tonnes. The November revision puts the Census crush more in line with the NOPA crush, but the December crush looks unusually low compared with NOPA indications. Soybean oil stocks also were lower than expected, dropping 5,900 tonnes from the previous month to 1.37 million tonnes. In contrast, soybean meal stocks were larger than expected at 367,000 tonnes as stocks accumulated. The December soybean oil yield dropped to 11.45 pounds per bushel from the previous month’s 11.56 pounds, which looks too high by 0.13 pounds given NOPA indications for November.

According to a new study published recently in Obesity Reviews, soy proteins in food have the added benefits of boosting bone health and aiding overall cardiovascular health, reduce cholesterol levels, and aid weight loss. Moreover, there was a suggestion that soy protein also may decrease short-term appetite and calorie intake. The study results also supported reports of the cholesterol-lowering benefits of soy, and that soy may reduce bone loss in women.

“Overall, the current data suggest that soyfoods are as good as other protein sources for promoting weight loss and there is a suggestive body of evidence that soyfoods may confer additional benefits, but results must be carefully interpreted and additional evidence is needed before making firm conclusions concerning soyfoods and weight loss,” wrote lead author Mark Cope from the University of Alabama at Birmingham.

Soy proteins and soy peptides have received attention for their hypolipidaemic and hypocholesterolaemic properties, as well as their ability to lower blood pressure, improve arterial compliance and endothelial function, insulin resistance and weight loss in obesity.

Cope, in collaboration with David Allison from University of Alabama at Birmingham and John Erdman from the University of Illinois at Champagne-Urbana, collected results from in vitro, animal, epidemiologic, and clinical studies. The review, including results from eight human studies, found that weight loss was equivalent and, in some cases, equal when using soy protein, dairy milk meal replacements, beef or pork at equal calorie levels.

India may import 5% more soybeans this year in order to boost supplies due to a decline in domestic production of oilseeds, according to the country’s leading trade body. According to a report from The Public Ledger, Ashok Sethia, president of the Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEAI), told members of his organization that purchases may total 5.9 million tonnes in the year ending October 2008, up from 5.6 million tonnes in the previous oil year.

Sethia said the winter oilseed could decline to 9 million tonnes this year, from 9.5 million tonnes last year, because farmers have planted less mustard seed crop. The area planted with oilseeds is also down to 8.1 million hectares, compared to 8.93 million hectares last year. He added that India’s oilseed production for the year could be as low as 26 million tonnes which is 13% lower than the government’s target of 30 million tonnes.

“In view of the lesser crop and carry-over stock, we may have to import a higher quantity (of vegetable oils) to bridge the gap between demand and supply,” Sethia told his audience. “The high price of edible oils will squeeze demand to some extent but the overall imports of edible oils are likely to increase from 5.6 million tonnes to 5.8 million to 5.9 million tonnes.”

Edible oil imports in the first two months of the 2007-08 season, to the end of December, were 624,102 tonnes according to the SEAI, up from 619,630 in the same period last season.

China, the world’s top soybean importer, is likely to import more in 2008 to meet increasing demand for edible oils, meat and biofuels, particularly after a poor domestic harvest in 2007, industry officials said this week. The China National Grains and Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC) estimated China’s soy imports in the marketing year beginning October 2007 would reach 33 million tonnes, a rise of 15% from the previous year.

Chinese crushers have booked more than 10 cargoes from South America since January 18, totaling 5 million tonnes, for shipment from April to July after freight rates plunged from record highs late last year, reported Reuters.

In related news, China saw massive rises in its imports of soyoil and rapeseed oil in 2007, according to General Administration of Customs of China (GACC) data. The GACC report said China imported 2.823 million tonnes of soyoil between January and December last year, a rise of 82.9% from the previous year’s total of 1.54 million tonnes.

Rapeseed oil saw the biggest shift in percentage terms with 374,776 tonnes of the commodity entering the country last year, up an incredible 794.6% from 43,995 tonnes imported in 2006.  Palm oil purchases stayed steady at 5.095 million tonnes in 2007, a slight rise of 0.2% from the previous year.

The soy complex closed higher on January 24 as a somewhat bearish Census crush report took backseat to a resurgence in the equity markets in the United States and elsewhere. This emboldened speculators to return as buyers of commodities. There are also reports that China as been a substantial buyer of soybeans due to the drop in ocean freight and the sell-off in soybean futures. The underlying fundamentals seem to have reasserted themselves. The 2008-09 balance sheets for corn, soybeans and wheat all look to be tight. Depending on how 2008 acreage is allocated among these crops, one or more of these balance sheets could be intolerably tight in 2008-09. Given corn’s reluctance to give acreage back to soybeans this year, it appears as if soybeans will be the crop that is short on supplies. Brazil’s soybean crop is progressing under favorable conditions, but it remains to be seen if Brazil can expand area. March bean futures closed up $15.06, finishing at $452.13; May gained $15.43, closing at $458.92; and July was up $15.80, ending at $464.34. March meal increased $2.87 closing at $366.18; May was $9.04 higher, finishing at $372.58; and July meal closed up $7.16 ending at $375.88. March oil increased $44.09 to finish at $1139.34; May was up $43.87, closing at $1153.89; and July was $43.87 higher, closing at $1167.12.

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